Stock Market Contents Archive

Yields on 2-year Treasuries are now the highest relative to 10-year rates of this economic cycle, with the gap between the two becoming the most negative since 2000. Pelosi's Taiwan trip has accelerated a move into longer-term US debt, with fears of a protracted US-China conflict https://t.co/u1igOM0gCw

The last 8 recessions in the US were all preceded by an inversion of the 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields. We're now only 4 bps away and this inversion may be the first to occur after the official start of the recession. Charting via @ycharts https://t.co/XAf8jTs6Dz

Per the just-released #JOLTS data, US job vacancies fell in June to 10.7 million -- the lowest level in almost a year (@markets chart below) and below the consensus forecast of 11 million. This will come as somewhat of a relief to a #Fed looking to cool the labor market though. https://t.co/K6OTLemVfv

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“War is inflationary." Credit Suisse's Pozsar says traders underestimate the pain needed to get inflation under control. He sees a risk that the Fed will raise benchmark US rates to 5-6% to reduce demand enough to match structurally constrained supply. https://t.co/LHRyFWToZ7

Global Central Bank Update: -Australia hiked rates for the 4th month in a row, 50 bps increase to 1.85%. -Colombia hiked rates for the 8th time in the last year, 150 bps increase to 9.00%. https://t.co/aaAlgMvejL

On the uncertainty associated with this new stage of #China-#US tensions: There is a lot of speculation on whether and how China would respond to what officials there said they would view as a provocation were US Congress Speaker Nancy #Pelosi to visit #Taiwan. This is ... 1/

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How to tell when Support or Resistance will break so you don’t get caught on the wrong side of the move https://t.co/0o1eAPLrht

Per the initial media reporting on @sffed President Mary Daly's remarks, the walk-back of last Wednesday's unscripted "neutral rate" remark continues. This is pushing yields higher, including that on the #Fed-sensitive 2-year (@markets chart). #economy #markets #EconTwitter https://t.co/BDqSNROj8h

BofA strategists see 10-year yields heading to 2% in the next 6-12 months: https://t.co/4llkNIQ0jR

Gas prices in the US move down to $4.19/gallon (national average), 83 cents below their all-time high in mid-June and at their lowest level in over 3 months. https://t.co/queSd1gJAn

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U.S. stocks were off to a lower start Tuesday, with analysts blaming rising tensions between the U.S. and China as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi prepared to visit Taiwan. https://t.co/MN89H3gqMP https://t.co/HLtQAtLvIU