Stock Market Contents Archive

The Fed projects a 5.1% fed funds rate at the end of next year, much higher than what the market expected. Stocks fall, but the market moves aren't as big as I'd think. https://t.co/gGI1jEQskj

Link to the #Fed's revised economic projections for 2023-24: Lower growth More unemployment Higher inflation Yet it "downshifted" rate hikes while also taking the peak rate up by 50bps to 5.1%. Confused? Don't be. It's the consequence of being late and having the wrong forecasts.

17 out of 19 Fed officials now see FF above 5% vs zero in September. #hawkish

More evidence of a decline in inflation... US Import Prices increased 2.7% over last year, the 8th consecutive decline in the YoY rate-of-change and the lowest level since January 2021. Historical average is a 2% increase with data going back to 1985. Charting via @ycharts https://t.co/fLJZU3Oo0U

Whatever Powell is saying, markets (Fed Fund futures) think the Fed has roughly two more 25 basis point hikes to go between now May 2023. After that, markets are projecting rate cuts.

The link to the just-released #Fed statement Worth reading together with the updated forecasts which include the median forecast for interest rates going just above 5% It is this, and certainly not the hike of 50 basis points, that'll be deemed more hawkish than #markets expected

Fed funds futures are still pricing in cuts by the end of next year, with a peak rate around 4.8%: https://t.co/LDYiVjdHLL

Lesson: by changing the start and end date, you can win just about any argument over what’s "the best" investment.

He said the market is wrong. No cuts in 2023. He probably only cuts next year if something breaks. Or $spx breaks 2022 lows in 2023. IMHOP.

New FTX CEO John J. Ray III sure didn't sugarcoat his answer. https://t.co/x6my0fj4nR

Before congratulating #France, I join many in saluting #Morocco for an amazing run that made history, earned the admiration of so many, and made us all proud and happy If they beat #Argentina, France would repeat as football champion of the world,no easy feat Will be a good final https://t.co/zcJtpWfyv1

Average gasoline prices in the US fell by nearly 1% overnight, the largest decline since late March 2020, with demand falling to its lowest for this time of year since 1998, excluding 2020: EIA data https://t.co/yenKX3sfLA

Powell to me, was very hawkish. And Gary C knows his stuff.

Elon Musk has stopped paying rent on Twitter offices and has told staff not to pay vendors. Musk has also has refused to pay a $197,725 bill for private charter flights and is considering denying severance payments. https://t.co/8dVE30PjaO

Total Returns, Last Year... Oil $USO: +32% US Dollar Index $UUP: +8% Gold $GLD: +2% Treasury Bills $BIL: +1% US Bonds $AGG: -11% MSCI World ex-US $ACWX: -12% S&P 500 $SPY: -13% Russell 2000 $IWM: -15% Nasdaq 100 $QQQ: -26% Bitcoin $BTC: -62% ARK Innovation $ARKK: -62%