Stock Market Contents Archive

2 years ago: 30-yr mortgage rate was 2.87% & median existing home price in the US was $310k. Today: 30-yr mortgage rate is 6.02% & median home price is $390k. Result: $16k increase in down payment (assuming 20% down) and 82% increase in monthly payment (from $1,029 to $1,872).

Looks like Jay Powell is admitting that there's very little chance of a soft landing. He is committing to the idea that stable prices are the foundation to a solid labor market, which doesn't leave much room for an Adam Posen-like 3% inflation target, even temporarily.

On Wednesdays we wear AND drink pink! https://t.co/dEEd4yhLqO

Fed’s new dot accompanyimh the 75 basis point hike…and the immediate reaction in the 2-year yield and the 2s-10s curve. Interesting and, I suspect, disturbing to the }Fed to see these moves. The press conference will be fascinating. #economy #markets #federalreserve #econtwitter https://t.co/H7uup218ka

Fed just said they are looking at Core PCE on a 3/6/12 month trailing basis - saying it remains too high. Analysis 101: we get better results by looking forward.

Current market expectations for path of Fed Funds Rate... -November: 75 bps hike to 3.75%-4.00% -December: 50 bps hike to 4.25%-4.50% -Feb 2023: 25 bps hike to 4.50%-4.75% -Pause -Rate cuts start in Sep 2023, continue in 2024... Upward shift of 25 bps today after FOMC statement. https://t.co/kfC6peRe8u

Fed officials see a Fed funds rate at a median 4.6% at the end of next year after raising rates by 75bp at the latest meeting. 2-year yields rise further: https://t.co/VKVF2nXwS1

From the @WSJ illustrating the "HFL" that has taken hold of the #Fed: Rates that go higher, faster and stay there longer. The economic narrative has also changed, now acknowledging the high #recession risk. Both could have been avoided had the Fed responded in a timely fashion https://t.co/b39y2uyjnq

Didn’t Cr**er say don’t worry on CPI Day? 9/23 The day most sold active longs and switched gears? Don’t listen to “experts”. Work on your process

The last time the 10-year yield saw a larger y/y increase Orange County California declared bankruptcy. https://t.co/9WLw4uTlNG

The S&P 500 is down 20.5% in the first 181 trading days of 2022, the 5th worst start to a year in history. $SPX https://t.co/3Yn6NP5NxL

After Jay Powell says the Fed won't outright sell mortgage-debt from its balance sheet anytime soon, 2-year yields, which were already coming down, return to where they were before the Fed's decision. https://t.co/1HHQ9Cks2I

The market listening to the Fed's messaging https://t.co/7TkvAS14s0

S&P 500 unchanged on the day. What a waste of time.

The S&P 500 fell 1.7% today, its 29th decline of the year of between 1% and 2%. That's the most we've seen since 2008 which had 34. $SPX https://t.co/WDgxqFxUne